Abstract
본 연구에서는 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모형을 이용하여 미래 기후변화가 충주댐 유역(6,585.1 km<TEX>$^2$</TEX>)의 하천수질에 미치는 영향을 분석하고자 하였다. 미래 기상자료는 IPCC에서 제공하는 A2, A1B, B1 배출시나리오를 포함하는 ECHAM5-OM 모형의 결과를 과거 30년(1977-2006, baseline period) 기후자료를 바탕으로 편이보정(bias correction)과 Change Factor Method로 Downscaling 하였다. 6년(1998-2003) 동안의 일별 유출량 및 월별 수질(SS, T-N, T-P) 자료를 이용하여 모형의 보정 및 검증을 실시한 후, Downscaling된 ECHAM5-OM의 A2, A1B, B1 시나리오에 대해 2020s, 2050s, 2080s로 대별되는 미래의 수문학적 거동 변화 및 하천수질 변화를 전망하였다. This study is to assess the future potential impact of climate change on stream water quality for a 6,581.1 km<TEX>$^2$</TEX> dam watershed using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. The ECHAM5-OM climate data of IPCC (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A2, A1B, and B1 emission scenarios were adopted and the future data (2007-2099) were corrected using 30 years (1977-2006, baseline period) weather data and downscaled by Change Factor (CF) method. After model calibration and validation using 6 years (1998-2003) observed daily streamflow and monthly water quality (SS, T-N, and T-P) data, the future (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) hydrological behavior and stream water quality were projected.
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