Abstract
Large radiocarbon datasets have been analysed statistically to identify, on the one hand, the dynamics and tempo of dispersal processes and, on the other, demographic change. This is particularly true for the spread of farming practices in Neolithic Europe. Here we combine the two approaches and apply them to a new, extensive dataset of 14,535 radiocarbon dates for the Mesolithic and Neolithic periods across the Near East and Europe. The results indicate three distinct demographic regimes: one observed in or around the centre of farming innovation and involving a boost in carrying capacity; a second appearing in regions where Mesolithic populations were well established; and a third corresponding to large-scale migrations into previously essentially unoccupied territories, where the travelling front is readily identified. This spatio-temporal patterning linking demographic change with dispersal dynamics, as displayed in the amplitude of the travelling front, correlates and predicts levels of genetic admixture among European early farmers.
Highlights
Large radiocarbon datasets have been analysed statistically to identify, on the one hand, the dynamics and tempo of dispersal processes and, on the other, demographic change
The inception of farming has been linked to population booms significant enough to be observed in the bio-anthropological records, leading to what has been called the Neolithic Demographic Transition[16,17], further underlining the demographic causes of the spread of early farming
The reported N values are number of site-phases identified by the Monte-Carlo Sum Probability Distribution (MCSPD) ‘binner’ function, whereas the p-values correspond to Timpson et al.’s ‘global p-value’
Summary
Large radiocarbon datasets have been analysed statistically to identify, on the one hand, the dynamics and tempo of dispersal processes and, on the other, demographic change. The results indicate three distinct demographic regimes: one observed in or around the centre of farming innovation and involving a boost in carrying capacity; a second appearing in regions where Mesolithic populations were well established; and a third corresponding to large-scale migrations into previously essentially unoccupied territories, where the travelling front is readily identified This spatio-temporal patterning linking demographic change with dispersal dynamics, as displayed in the amplitude of the travelling front, correlates and predicts levels of genetic admixture among European early farmers. In 1971, while anti-diffusionism was sweeping across archaeological circles, Albert Ammerman and Luigi Cavalli-Sforza showed that a continuous large-scale structured population movement analogous to a wave-of-advance could be inferred from a regression analysis of the available radiocarbon record[2] They later suggested that traces of this process of ‘demic diffusion’ could be identified in the spatial pattern of modern genetic variation, with corresponding East-West clines[3]. The inception of farming has been linked to population booms significant enough to be observed in the bio-anthropological records, leading to what has been called the Neolithic Demographic Transition[16,17], further underlining the demographic causes of the spread of early farming
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