Abstract
The records of HW and LW in the most upper part of the Scheldt Estuary since 1971 have been analysed together with the daily river discharge. The tidal range, the hydraulic head and the ratio between the rising tide period to falling tide period have been determined for investigating the tidal amplification, the water surface slope along the river and the tidal asymmetry. The purpose of the investigation is to find out if a regime shift to high turbidity and strong tidal amplification is developing in the system. The results of the analysis show that both the hydraulic head and the tidal amplification have increased over time. The tide in this part of the estuary is flood-dominant, but the flood-dominancy is decreasing in time. These developments of the tide can be plausibly explained by a decrease of the river width followed by gradual deepening in the river. The most upper part of the Scheldt Estuary still behaves normally as a not too muddy system. No decisive answer can be given whether or not a regime shift towards a high-turbid system with strong tidal amplification may develop. How the system will develop depends on the change in capacity of pumping mud towards the upper reaches of the estuary. The increasing tidal amplitude can enhance this capacity although the flood-dominance itself is decreasing. Further study is recommended to better specify the potential danger of a regime shift to high-turbid system.
Highlights
Water levels, probably the easiest data to measure in an estuary, contain important information about the estuary
This means that the development of the hydraulic head, the tidal amplification and the tidal asymmetry should all be explained by the changes of these three factors
& The tidal amplification in the most upper part of the Scheldt Estuary has become stronger in time while the upstream river discharge does not show any long-term trend and the tidal range at the downstream boundary has been increasing
Summary
Probably the easiest data to measure in an estuary, contain important information about the estuary. A possible regime shift, as concerned by Winterwerp et al (2013), would be expected in the Sea Scheldt, i.e. the Belgium part of the estuary This is the narrow part of the estuary (Fig.2) where the largest changes occurred in the tidal range (Fig. 3). A complicating feature of the Sea Scheldt is its branching structure To avoid this complication, the present study focuses on the most upper part of the estuary, i.e. the section between the tidal stations Dendermonde and Melle (Fig. 2). The present study focuses on the most upper part of the estuary, i.e. the section between the tidal stations Dendermonde and Melle (Fig. 2) This part contains no tributaries and is not influenced by salinity intrusion. The data of river discharge at Melle are collected for the analysis
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