America's Pacific Pivot

Abstract

One of the themes dominating contemporary international relations discourse is the of and its implications for the existing international order. Talk of China's ascension is usually coupled with that of American decline. Books and articles detailing America's untimely demise as the global hegemonic power continue to dominate popular discourse. global order fractures as American power declines, writes Alan Beattie of the Financial Times.' The Wall Street Journal reports that pluralities in 13 of 25 countries believe that will replace the US as the world's leading superpower, and CBS announced that in August 2010, 65 percent of Americans believed the country was now 'in a state of decline.'2 A recently published survey of American international relations scholars and policymakers revealed that both rank the rising power of as the top foreign policy problem facing the United States.3 For many of today's doomsayers, it is now a postAmerican world characterized by a of the rest.The principal fear surrounding American decline for the international community is war, particularly among states looking to take over as the global leader. This fear is based heavily on realist theories concerning the balance of power and its effects on the stability of the international system. Accordingly, Perceptions of change in the relative power of nations are of critical importance to understanding the relationship between decline and war,4 and today is widely perceived as America's chief rival for global influence.The United States and are the two most important countries in the world. Their relationship has repercussions for the stability and wellbeing of the global community. Amid the deluge of articles and books published about the of China, getting a clear, multi-faceted analysis of China's development and Sino- US relations can be surprisingly difficult. More often than not, contemporary analyses become trapped in simplified hugger versus China hawk characterizations. Generally, panda huggers argue for engagement, while Hawks favour containment.Sino-US relations are, in a word, complex. Discussions on the subject and its theoretical implications are no different. When reviewing the literature, it becomes evident how easily the facts and figures can be used to cast in whatever light one chooses. Painting an accurate picture of therefore requires using shades of grey, rather than black and white. As one group of China-watchers remarked, China is an exceedingly complex, and sometimes internally contradictory, society that is difficult for outsiders to decipher... Hence it is unusually complicated to discern where is headed over time on even the most fundamental economic and security issues.5 The purpose of this article is to clarify the contemporary debates relating to China's rise, with a focus on the theoretical and strategic implications. Understanding these implications is essential - if the continues to be characterized by simplistic assumptions, logically inconsistent theories, and historically inaccurate (often mutually exclusive) empirical claims to frame the China Question, a more complex and policy relevant interpretation of China's rise will remain elusive. This is especially true with respect to the strategic debate, which is concerned primarily with China's military modernization and traditional balance of power dynamics.The China debate is multifaceted; it encompasses numerous debates, all related though often taking place without reference to the others. There are debates regarding the implications of China's on the peacefulness and stability of the global order, often using power transition or hegemonic stability theories. This includes debates on whether it is possible for to peacefully and whether that is truly its intention. There is a related conversation focusing on power transition and state behaviour under unipolarity - a historically unprecedented situation that is helping international relations theorists test prior assumptions and further develop theories relevant to contemporary world politics. …