Abstract
Cost reductions and technological advancements are priming autonomous, electric, and shared vehicles for rapid growth, which may improve safety and mobility, but may also increase vehicle-miles traveled (VMT). This study seeks to improve upon existing fleet evolution work, by simulating the adoption of autonomous, electric, and shared vehicles in a single fleet evolution simulation, calibrated with results of a recent survey of Americans. Statistical models are used in the household-level microsimulation to model decisions regarding vehicle transactions, travel behavior, and land use decisions.The simulation predicts a shift in the powertrain makeup of the United States fleet, with hybrid-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles each comprising over 40% of the private fleet by 2050. The rate of decline of the price premium for self-driving vehicle technology has a significant effect on autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption rates. Allowing the ability to retain a human-driving option in self-driving vehicles increases AV adoption rates by roughly 10% by 2050. Shared autonomous vehicle (SAV) use rises to roughly 35% of overall VMT by 2050, about one third of which is via dynamic ride-sharing (DRS). VMT among private vehicles roughly follows adoption rates, though technologies with greater adoption generally experience disproportionately higher VMT.
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