America’s decoupling from China narrative: development, determinants, and policy implications

Abstract

ABSTRACT America’s decoupling from China debate started after July 2018, reached its peak in August 2020, and is likely to continue even if it may not be a high priority for the Biden administration. Many studies have examined various aspects of this topic. Unlike previous research, using Google Trends data, this study creatively created a high-frequency weekly dataset to measure the narrative of decoupling from China in the US. Based on this dataset from January 2020 to June 2021, three issues are examined from a novel perspective. First, this study provides a quantitative description of its development. Second, for the first time in the academic literature, this study provides empirical evidence on the determinants of the decoupling narrative, including Chinese trade, Chinese investment, Chinese students, Chinese technology, Chinese companies, and Covid-19. Third, this study also discusses the policy implications of these findings. In particular, if the US government wants to adopt an aggressive strategy of decoupling from China in the future, COVID-19 is one tool that could be used. While this study makes original contributions to policy-makers, it also contributes to academia by presenting a (still) new quantitative approach to international relations.