Ambulatory Follow-up and Outcomes Among Medicare Beneficiaries After Emergency Department Discharge

Abstract

Ambulatory follow-up care is frequently recommended after an emergency department (ED) visit. However, the frequency with which follow-up actually occurs and the degree to which follow-up is associated with postdischarge outcomes is unknown. To examine the frequency and variation in ambulatory follow-up among Medicare beneficiaries discharged from US EDs and the association between ambulatory follow-up and postdischarge outcomes. This cohort study of 9 470 626 ED visits to 4728 US EDs among Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older from 2011 to 2016 who survived the ED visit and were discharged to home used Kaplan-Meier curves and proportional hazards regression. Data analysis was conducted from December 2019 to July 2020. Ambulatory follow-up after discharge from the ED. Postdischarge mortality, subsequent ED visit, or inpatient hospitalization within 30 days of an index ED visit. The study sample consisted of 9 470 626 index outpatient ED visits to 4684 EDs; most visits (5 776 501 [61.0%]) were among women, and the mean (SD) age of patients was 77.3 (8.4) years. In this sample, the cumulative incidence of ambulatory follow-up was 40.5% (3 822 133 patients) at 7 days and 70.8% (6 662 525 patients) at 30 days, after accounting for censoring and for mortality as a competing risk. Characteristics associated with lower rates of ambulatory follow-up included beneficiary Medicaid eligibility (hazard ratio [HR], 0.77; 95% CI, 0.77-0.78; P < .001), Black race (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.81-0.83; P < .001), and treatment at a rural ED (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.73-0.77; P < .001) in the multivariable regression model. Ambulatory follow-up was associated with lower risk of postdischarge mortality (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.49-0.50; P < .001) but higher risk of subsequent inpatient hospitalization (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.21-1.23; P < .001) and ED visits (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00-1.01; P < .001), adjusting for visit diagnosis, patient demographic characteristics, and chronic conditions. In this cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries discharged from the ED, nearly 30% lacked ambulatory follow-up at 30 days, with variation in follow-up rates by patient and hospital characteristics. Having an ambulatory follow-up visit was associated with higher risk of subsequent hospitalization but lower risk of mortality. Ambulatory care access may be an important driver of clinical outcomes after an ED visit.