Ambient air quality and human health in India

Abstract

TPS 682: Long-term health effects of air pollutants 2, Exhibition Hall, Ground floor, August 27, 2019, 3:00 PM - 4:30 PM Background: India experiences levels of ambient fine particles (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) amongst the highest globally, where exposure is a leading risk factor for human health. Air pollutant emissions are predicted to increase in India. However, Indian air quality remains understudied and knowledge of the sources causing air pollution is limited. Methods: We quantify the contribution of different sources to the disease burden from ambient air pollution exposure in India and the effects of future air pollution control pathways. We combined high-resolution computer simulations, new observations, and updated exposure-response relationships. Results: Ambient PM2.5 exposure causes 1 million premature deaths each year in India, where large reductions in emissions will be required to reduce the health burden due to the non-linear exposure-response relationship causing health effects to saturate at high exposures. The disease burden from ambient O3 exposure is 200% larger than previously thought, causing 124,000 premature deaths every year. Residential energy use emissions dominate ambient PM2.5 concentrations (52%) and are attributed to 511,000 premature deaths. However, removing these emissions would avert only 256,000 premature deaths due to the non-linear exposure-response relationship. Emissions from land transport dominate the ambient O3 disease burden (35%), followed by power generation (23%). Under current policies to 2050, annual premature mortality from PM2.5 and O3 exposure will increase by 68% and 204%, respectively, due to population ageing and growth increasing susceptibility. Stringent air pollution control pathways can offset the increase in premature mortality from population ageing and growth by 91% (610,000 deaths) for PM2.5 and 45% (335,000 deaths) for O3, and reduce the overall mortality rate from ambient PM2.5 exposure by 15%. Conclusions: The disease burden from air pollution exposure in India is substantial and likely to increase unless stringent air pollution management provide large emission reductions. A focus should be to reduce solid fuel combustion.