Abstract
BackgroundWorldwide, there is concern that increases in the prevalence of dementia will result in large demands for caregivers and supportive services that will be challenging to address. Previous dementia projections have either been simple extrapolations of prevalence or macrosimulations based on dementia incidence.MethodsA population-based microsimulation model of Alzheimer’s and related dementias (POHEM:Neurological) was created using Canadian demographic data, estimates of dementia incidence, health status (health-related quality of life and mortality risk), health care costs and informal caregiving use. Dementia prevalence and 12 other measures were projected to 2031.ResultsBetween 2011 and 2031, there was a projected two-fold increase in the number of people living with dementia in Canada (1.6-fold increase in prevalence rate). By 2031, the projected informal (unpaid) caregiving for dementia in Canada was two billion hours per year, or 100 h per year per Canadian of working age.ConclusionsThe projected increase in dementia prevalence was largely related to the expected increase in older Canadians, with projections sensitive to changes in the age of dementia onset.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12963-016-0107-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Highlights
Worldwide, there is concern that increases in the prevalence of dementia will result in large demands for caregivers and supportive services that will be challenging to address
Microsimulation modeling has been suggested as an approach to improve dementia projections
Interpretation We present the first, to our knowledge, population model of Alzheimer’s and related dementia for projecting incidence, prevalence, and related outcomes: the Population Model for Neurological Diseases (POHEM:Neurological)
Summary
Previous dementia projections have either been simple extrapolations of prevalence or macrosimulations based on dementia incidence. Methods: A population-based microsimulation model of Alzheimer’s and related dementias (POHEM:Neurological) was created using Canadian demographic data, estimates of dementia incidence, health status (health-related quality of life and mortality risk), health care costs and informal caregiving use. Population-based dementia models have been created to support planning by projecting the number of people living with dementia and by allowing the examination of counterfactual scenarios that may ameliorate or exacerbate dementia’s societal burden. Previous dementia projections have either been extrapolations of current prevalence trends, which lack incidence rates altogether, or macrosimulation (cell-based) studies, which use a constant incidence and mortality rate, among other simplifying assumptions
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