Abstract
ABSTRACTIt is difficult and inadequate to use a global model alone for projecting future climate changes in areas such as Taiwan, a complex geographic nature island, due to its coarse resolution. In this study, we have performed dynamic downscaling of Taiwan's climate in the recent past (1979–2003) and climate change projection for the near and distant future (2015–2039 and 2075–2099, respectively) by using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. The simulation is forced by the Max Plank Institute Hamburg, global model, ECHAM5/MPIOM. Simulation results showed close correlation between fine‐resolution downscaling by WRF nested with ECHAM5/MPIOM and the actual observation data for the period 1979–2003. Projection of future climate changes revealed both altitudinal and latitudinal variations in warming trend, with more significant temperature increase in mountain areas than in plain areas towards the end of the 21st century and more obvious warming in the north than in the south of Taiwan. The results obtained in this study can be applied to other regions of similar latitudes and with comparable relief.
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