Alternative Proteins in Low- and Middle-Income Countries Face a Questionable Future: Will Technology Negate Bennett’s Law?

Abstract

Rising incomes across low-and middle-income countries (LMIC) lead to a lower consumption of starchy staples and create a growing demand for high-quality animal protein, an observation referred to as Bennett’s law. This dietary shift from plant-sourced to animal-sourced proteins has also been referred to as the LMIC protein transition. At this time, there are rising concerns that current livestock production is highly resource intensive and may not meet the growing global demand for high-quality protein. Alternative plant-based proteins, derived from new technologies and often fortified with micronutrients, are intended to close the LMIC nutrient gap. However, data from LMIC suggest that the income-driven selection of animal proteins is aspirational and varies by stage of economic development. Food balance sheets from higher-income countries indicate that meat consumption peaks only at very high incomes. Will plant-based alternative proteins satisfy the growing LMIC demand for animal-sourced foods, thereby negating Bennett’s law? Current evidence suggests otherwise.