Abstract
The purchase subsidy policy gives powerful support in battery electric vehicles’ (BEVs) market penetration. However, the purchase subsidy is also a huge financial burden for the government, so it can only be considered as a transitional measure and will be canceled gradually. This paper aims to investigate the impact of purchase subsidy phase-out on BEV adoptions and explore alternative incentive policies to continue stimulating BEV adoptions. A stated preference (SP) survey is conducted in Beijing, and a binary logit (BL) model is established to describe how various factors affect BEV adoption preferences. In addition to the factors related to vehicle techniques, the policies of license plate restrictions and driving restrictions are focused due to Beijing’s unique external policy environment. The vehicle use subsidy and bus line driving permit are tested as alternative incentive policies against the purchase subsidy decrease. The results show that incentive policies can significantly influence BEV adoption intentions. If the purchase subsidy policy is canceled in Beijing, the BEV choice probability will be reduced from 45.94% to 16.62%. In this case, the vehicle use subsidy needs to be set at the level of 4966 CNY/year (714.3 USD/year) to maintain the original BEV choice probability.
Highlights
In order to deal with the severe situation of global climate change, energy crisis, and air pollution in the transportation sector, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are regarded as an effective way worldwide [1,2]
The parameters of the binary logit (BL) model are estimated based on the above survey data, and the effects of each factor and alternative incentive policy on the BEV choice probability is analyzed based on the model results
Based on the survey data, the impacts of various factors on BEV adoption intentions are analyzed through establishing a BL model, 5
Summary
In order to deal with the severe situation of global climate change, energy crisis, and air pollution in the transportation sector, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are regarded as an effective way worldwide [1,2]. According to Global EV Outlook 2018 [3], the global stock of electric passenger cars reached 3.1 million in 2017, 40% of which were in China. According to the statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) of China, the number of BEVs has reached 1.7 million until the end of 2017, and it is expected to reach 5 million by the end of the “13th Five-Year Plan” in. BEVs are widely produced and used due to their advantages of environmental protection, low energy consumption, and low operating cost [4].
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