Alternative Futures for US-Pakistani Relations

Abstract

The course of US-Pakistan relations is not preordained.' They can take different directions under different pressures exerted both from within and without. This essay proposes to examine these pressures, as they are felt now and as they are likely to develop in the future, strictly from Pakistan's point of view. The emphasis is, therefore, not on facts and events alone, but on how they are perceived in Islamabad and on how these perceptions can determine the shape of US-Pakistan relations in the years to come. Some Americans may find this a somewhat uncomfortable framework within which to examine the future of our mutual relations: uncomfortable because it demands a break from the comfort of stereotypes structured around the cliched language of official communiques, which tend to describe the two countries as natural allies and friends; uncomfortable also because it is not easy for a superpower like the United States to appreciate that, even in an unequal relationship as with Pakistan, the forces which shape the relationship are not exclusively controlled by Washington. Although it is a small, developing, exposed, and vulnerable country, Pakistan also has a soul of its own which gives it strength beyond its immediate resources. It was, indeed, this very failure to take into account how things are perceived in Pakistan which led to the United States finding itself rebuffed by an old ally and a traditional friend. President Zia-ul-Haq's no to the Brzezinski offer of $400 million in aid over a period of 18 months was not the result of dissatisfaction with the size of the package. Besides, there are unconfirmed reports that the Carter Administration was willing to enlarge its package by