Alternative future scenarios for South Korea in 2030

Abstract

This paper discusses South Korea's five alternative future scenarios in 2030 to increase our understanding of its long-term future by exploring the key question of ‘what will South Korea look like in the year 2030’ in terms of society, economy, politics, class, and other pertinent issues. Following Jim Dator's alternative futures method, the five alternative future scenarios include four alternative scenario archetypes (growth, discipline, collapse, and transformation) and one preferred future scenario. After reviewing South Korea's history and current situation as well as the existing forecasts of the possible futures, we address the uncertainty about the future in the five alternative scenarios: (a) the Republic of Samsung scenario, (b) the great Han River flood in a warmer South Korea scenario, (c) the big global family phenomenon scenario, (d) the Age of Biotechnology scenario, (e) peaceful unification as a dream come true scenario. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the enhancement of the vivid narratives and imagination characterizing each scenario to provide dramatic insights regarding the emotional and symbolic meanings, and to envision Korea's preferred future that will transform Korea into a better society.