Alternative Explanations of Neighborhood Change: An Evaluation of Neighborhood Life-Cycle, Composition, and Arbitrage Models

Abstract

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to evalute the degree to which three ecological models can predict the direction of neighborhood change. Three models — life-cycle, arbitrage, and composition — are found commonly in the literature on neighborhood change, but each focuses on a different aspect of this process. To date, researchers have evaluated the models individually, but few have compared them. This study uses regression analysis to evaluate the three models using census tract data from Cincinnati, Ohio. The life-cycle model was clearly the most parsimonious model for both upward and downward succession tracts. The arbitrage model had predictive value for upward succession tracts but not downward ones. The composition model was found to have little predictive value. The contributions of each model to the neighborhood change process is discussed.