Alternative energy development strategies for China towards 2030

Abstract

The purposes, objectives and technology pathways for alternative energy development are discussed with the aim of reaching sustainable energy development in China. Special attention has been paid to alternative power and alternative vehicle fuels. Instead of limiting alternative energy to energy sources such as nuclear and renewable energy, the scope of discussion is extended to alternative technologies such as coal power with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), electric and hydrogen vehicles. In order to take account of the fact that China’s sustainable energy development involves many dimensions, a six-dimensional indicator set has been established and applied with the aim of comprehensively evaluating different technology pathways in a uniform way. The analysis reaches the following conclusions: (a) in the power sector, wind power, nuclear power and hydro power should be developed as much as possible, while R&D of solar power and coal power with CCS should be strengthened continuously for future deployment. (b) in the transportation sector, there is no foreseeable silver bullet to replace oil on a large scale within the time frame of 20 to 30 years. To ease the severe energy security situation, expedient choices like coal derived fuels could be developed. However, its scale should be optimized in accordance to the trade-off of energy security benefits, production costs and environmental costs. Desirable alternative fuels (or technologies) like 2nd generation biofuels and electrical vehicles should be the subject of intensive R&D with the objective to be cost effective as early as possible.