Alteration in Plant Phenology and Asthma hospitalization in New York State

Abstract

Background/Aim.Recent trend in warming temperature is changing the timing of spring onset for deciduous trees, that are dominant source of springtime pollen. Such changes can alter springtime pollen exposure dynamics and negatively impact burden of allergic disease including asthma hospitalization.Methods.We used phenology data from the Landsat series to calculate a cardinal date for start of spring (SOS) for each county within the state of New York for the years 1996–2016. We categorized yearly deviations in SOS for each county (N=62) from their respective long-term averages as: early (>7 days early), average (within 7 days), and late (>7 days late). We linked this changes in SOS to springtime asthma hospitalization counts in the respective 62 counties during 1996 to 2016, obtained from Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP). We investigated the association between deviations in SOS and springtime asthma hospitalizations using negative binomial Generalized Estimating Equations.Results.We observed that counties in lower latitudes had earlier SOS while counties in higher latitudes had later SOS. There was considerable variability in cardinal date for SOS ranging from 88 to 135 in lower latitudes and 114 to 134 in higher latitudes. During the 20-year period, there was a negative trend in SOS and this change was more pronounced in higher latitudes. During 1996-2016, there were 502,103 asthma inpatient hospitalizations in the New York state. In depth analysis is ongoing to investigate the relationship between changes in timing of spring onset and asthma hospitalization in New York State.Conclusions.Our data shows that changes in timing of spring onset is associated with asthma hospitalization rates.