Abstract
The ongoing period fertility decline in the Nordic countries is particularly strong in Finland, where the total fertility rate (TFR) reached an all-time low of 1.41 in 2018. We analyse the decrease in Finland's TFR in 2010–17, and assess its consequences for cohort fertility using complementary approaches. Decomposition of this fertility decline shows that first births and women aged <30 are making the largest contributions. However, women aged 30–39 are also, for the first time in decades, experiencing a sustained fertility decline. Tempo adjustments to the TFR suggest that quantum change is part of the decline. Several forecasting methods indicate that cohort fertility is likely to decline from the long-lasting level of 1.85–1.95 to 1.75 or lower among women born in the mid-1980s. Without an exceptionally strong recovery in fertility, Finnish cohort fertility is likely to decline to levels currently observed among countries with very low fertility.
Highlights
In recent decades, family demographic research has shown that Finland and the other Nordic countries exhibit relatively high and stable cohort fertility (Frejka 2008, 2017; Andersson et al 2009; Myrskylä et al 2013; Zeman et al 2018; Jalovaara et al 2019)
Recent years compared with results published elsewhere (e.g. Official Statistics of Finland (2015); Roustaei et al (2019))
Using aggregated data from the Human Fertility Database (HFD), we analysed the rapid decline in period fertility by age and parity seen in recent years in Finland, and forecasted the ultimate cohort fertility for women currently of childbearing age
Summary
Family demographic research has shown that Finland and the other Nordic countries exhibit relatively high and stable cohort fertility (Frejka 2008, 2017; Andersson et al 2009; Myrskylä et al 2013; Zeman et al 2018; Jalovaara et al 2019). As the Nordic countries all have similar policies aimed at promoting work–family reconciliation among parents, scholars have argued that these policies contribute to a common Nordic fertility regime with very similar period and cohort fertility patterns (Andersson 2004; Neyer et al 2006; Andersson et al 2009). These patterns include fertility postponement and, unlike in other countries, strong recuperation of births at older ages. Birth rates in the early 2010s have been studied in Finland (Comolli 2018) and across the Nordic countries (Comolli et al 2019), but the accelerating decrease during the most recent years, in Finland, has not yet been studied in detail despite considerable public attention
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