Abstract
A number of fisheries, particularly those managed by international regulatory agencies, are managed on a total allowable catch or quota system, with the aim of taking the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) from the fishery. Such a procedure can involve considerable risk, particularly in the presence of environmental fluctuations. In this paper, an approximate stochastic model of an MSY quota managed fishery is analysed, and the distribution of first passage times through a defined low population level is obtained. This allows partial quantification of the risks associated with misestimation of the true MSY. A minimum expected risk estimator of the MSY is derived, and the implications for management of fisheries on an MSY basis are discussed. Numerical examples illustrating the application of the results obtained to the management of whale stocks are given.
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