Allopatry increases the balance of phylogenetic trees during radiation under neutral speciation

Abstract

The shape of a phylogenetic tree is defined by the sequence of speciation events, represented by its branching points, and extinctions, represented by branch interruptions. In a neutral scenario of parapatry and isolation by distance, species tend to branch off the original population one after the other, leading to highly unbalanced trees. In this case the degree of imbalance, measured by the normalized Sackin index, grows linearly with species richness. Here we claim that moderate values of imbalance for trees with large number of species can occur if the geographic distribution involves more than one deme (allopatry) and speciation is parapatric within demes. The combined values of balance (normalized Sackin index) and species richness provide an estimate of how many demes were involved in the process if it happened in such neutral scenario. We also show that the spatial division in demes moderately slows down the diversification process, portraying a neutral mechanism for structuring the branch length distribution of phylogenetic trees.