Abstract
In December of 2014, the Organ Procurement and Transplant Network implemented a new Kidney Allocation System (KAS) for deceased donor transplant, with increased priority for highly sensitized candidates (calculated panel-reactive antibody [cPRA] >99%). We used a modified version of the new KAS to address issues of access and equity for these candidates. In a simulation, 10,988 deceased donor kidneys transplanted into waitlisted recipients in 2010 were instead allocated to candidates with cPRA≥80% (n=18,004). Each candidate's unacceptable donor HLA antigens had been entered into the allocation system by the transplant center. In simulated match runs, kidneys were allocated sequentially to adult ABO identical or permissible candidates with cPRA 100%, 99%, 98%, etc. to 80%. Allocations were restricted to donor/recipient pairs with negative virtual crossmatches. The simulation indicated that 2111 of 10,988 kidneys (19.2%) would have been allocated to patients with cPRA 100% versus 74 of 10,988 (0.7%) that were actually transplanted. Of cPRA 100% candidates, 74% were predicted to be compatible with an average of six deceased donors; the remaining 26% seemed to be incompatible with every deceased donor organ that entered the system. Of kidneys actually allocated to cPRA 100% candidates in 2010, 66% (49 of 74) were six-antigen HLA matched/zero-antigen mismatched (HLA-A, -B, and -DR) with their recipients versus only 11% (237 of 2111) in the simulation. The simulation predicted that 10,356 of 14,433 (72%) candidates with cPRA 90%-100% could be allocated an organ compared with 7.3% who actually underwent transplant. Data in this simulation are consistent with early results of the new KAS; specifically, nearly 20% of deceased donor kidneys were (virtually) compatible with cPRA 100% candidates. Although most of these candidates were predicted to be compatible with multiple donors, approximately one-quarter are unlikely to receive a single offer.
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