Allied to Race? The U.S.-Korea Alliance and Arms Race

Abstract

The Republic of Korea has rapidly increased its defense budget in recent years. Last year's spending of 26.6 trillion won represents a twofold increase from ten years ago. Now the Ministry of National Defense projects an annual average increase of 7.6 percent to 53.3 trillion won by 2020, another doubling over the next decade. South Korea, notably, raised its defense spending at a higher rate than North Korea at a time when Seoul was taking a more conciliatory policy of engagement. While the Roh Moo-hyun administration increased defense spending ostensibly in response to its policy goal to build a more autonomous military, the U.S.-Korea alliance motivated and shaped South Korea's military transformation. This article examines the degree to which external threats, domestic interests, and the alliance have affected the South's military spending and transformation. Key words: East Asian security, South Korea, military spending, South Korea-U.S. relations, arms race Introduction The Republic of Korea (South Korea) has increased its defense budget fourfold in less than twenty years, from 6.6 trillion won in 1990 to 26.6 trillion won in 2008. Last year's spending represents a twofold increase from ten years ago; and now the Ministry of National Defense's (MND) Defense Reform 2020 projects an annual average increase of 7.6 percent to 53.3 trillion won by 2020, another doubling over the next decade.1 Is Seoul engaged in defense-budget doubling projects every ten years? Why has South Korea's military spending increased so much in recent years, and especially under the liberal governments of the past ten years? Why does it keep growing? Is there any pattern that we can discern in South Korea's military spending? South Korea has continuously increased its military spending since 2000 at a rate higher than conventional explanations would expect. Its spending grew 200 percent for the past ten years, higher than would be warranted by the growth of its economy or government budget over the same period. South Korea also, notably, raised its defense spending at a higher rate than North Korea did at a time when Seoul was taking a more conciliatory policy of engagement, commonly dubbed the sunshine policy. Its defense spending increased ostensibly in response to its policy goal to build a more autonomous military under the Roh Moo-hyun administration. But closer examination shows that the U.S.-Korea alliance in fact strengthened during this period and served as driver of South Korea's military transformation. Furthermore, Roh's predecessor and successor have, despite their opposite political orientations, strengthened the military in a way that dovetails with changes in American strategy and military. This article examines how the South's military transformation, in quantity and form, is attributable at least partly to the pressure that its alliance with the United States keeps on Seoul to maintain military readiness and interoperability. This article critically examines three main groups of factors that affect Seoul's military expenditure, showing their contributions and shortcomings. First, it shows that the conventional North Korea threat explanation is more effective in dealing with the past than with more recent periods. Second, it argues that internal factors go far toward explaining some cases of weapons acquisitions. Finally, it suggests that the quantitative growth and qualitative change of South Korea's military are closely correlated with the requirements of alliance readiness, although the alliance produces countervailing effects on Seoul's military spending. External Threats According to realist conventional wisdom, a state allocates resources to the military as a means to provide for survival. Since the minimal goal of a state is its survival against potential threats, the amount of its military spending is proportional to the level of threat it faces. A state in a benign strategic environment may keep its security expenditure to a minimum so it may allocate more resources to internal welfare, even if it may not be able to completely eliminate the military for fear that today's friends should become tomorrow's enemies. …