All You Have to Do Is Ask: Measuring Uncertainty in Vote Intention

Abstract

A growing body of electoral forecasting research has tried to predict how voter's stated intentions before an election will change by the time the election is held. Much of this research has focused on aggregate shifts in opinion (Fisher 2015; Bafumi et al. 2010). This note argues that a simple measure of a voter's own certainty about their vote intention provides useful additional information about a voter's likelihood of switching away from their current intention. Such a measure allows us to see which parties' voters are most likely to defect and which blocks of votes are most solid.