Abstract
Incomplete vaccine uptake and limited vaccine availability for some segments of the population could lead policymakers to consider re-imposing restrictions to help reduce fatalities. Early in the pandemic, full business shutdowns were commonplace. Given this response, much of the literature on policy effectiveness has focused on full closures and their impact. But were complete closures necessary? Using a hand-collected database of partial business closures for all U.S. counties from March through December 2020, we examine the impact of capacity restrictions on COVID-19 fatality growth. For the restaurant and bar sector, we find that several combinations of partial capacity restrictions are as effective as full shutdowns. For example, point estimates indicate that, for the average county, limiting restaurants and bars to 25% of capacity reduces the fatality growth rate six weeks ahead by approximately 43%, while completely closing them reduces fatality growth by about 16%. The evidence is more mixed for the other sectors that we study. We find that full gym closures reduce the COVID-19 fatality growth rate, while partial closures may be counterproductive relative to leaving capacity unrestricted. Retail closures are ineffective, but 50% capacity limits reduce fatality growth. We find that restricting salons, other personal services and movie theaters is either ineffective or counterproductive.
Highlights
Beginning in March 2020, government entities began to respond to the COVID-19 crisis by shutting down businesses and many social activities
How effective were partial shutdowns compared to full closures? This question is of considerable interest since incomplete vaccine rollouts and limited vaccine availability to some segments of the population may lead policymakers to consider imposing new restrictions to help reduce fatalities
Government entities initially responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with policies that shut down an array of businesses
Summary
Beginning in March 2020, government entities began to respond to the COVID-19 crisis by shutting down businesses and many social activities. The early business restrictions were simple; establishments were open or closed. The early literature focused on full closures and their impact [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9]. Once cases started to decline, governments often responded by letting businesses partially reopen. How effective were partial shutdowns compared to full closures? This paper uses hand-collected county-level data to analyze the impact of partial shutdowns of restaurants, bars, gyms, spas, retail establishments, and movie theaters on the growth of COVID-19 fatalities.
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