All-Cause Mortality Risk and Attributable Deaths Associated with Long-Term Exposure to Ambient PM2.5 in Chinese Adults.

Abstract

Several recent studies in China have associated raised mortality risks with chronic exposure to ambient PM2.5. However, cohort evidence covering general populations and more homogeneous regions is extensively scarce. We conceived a nationwide perspective cohort study from 2010 through 2018, by enrolling 30 946 adult men and women aged 16-110 years from 25 provincial regions in mainland China. Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying exposures were adopted to quantify longitudinal association of PM2.5 exposure with all-cause mortality. A total of 1762 death events occurred during a median follow-up of 8.1 years. Participants were exposed to a broad range of annual mean PM2.5 concentrations (2.4-112 μg/m3), with an average estimate of 47.5 μg/m3. A 10-μg/m3 increase in annual average of PM2.5 exposure was associated with an hazard ratio of 1.055 (95% confidence interval: 1.022-1.088, p < 0.001) for all-cause mortality. We estimated totally 2.68 million deaths attributable to ambient PM2.5 in 2015, yielding a remarkable reduction of 36.7 thousand compared to the estimate in 2010 (2.72 million deaths). This study added nationally representative evidence regarding concentration-response function for long-term PM2.5-mortality association in Chinese adults, which may significantly contribute to national and global assessments of PM2.5-attributable death burden.