Alike but also different: a spatiotemporal analysis of the older populations in Zhejiang and Jilin provinces, China

Abstract

According to the 7th National Population Census, China is experiencing rapid growth of its ageing population, with large spatial disparities in the distribution of older folks in different regions. And yet, scant comparative research has been conducted on the two regions of Zhejiang and Jilin in particular, which differ considerably in economic development but witness nearly the same ageing trend. In response, this article compares Zhejiang, an advanced economic province, with Jilin, with its relatively low level of economic development, to explore the ageing issue and analyse the spatial correlation between older populations and socioeconomic factors. Using the spatiotemporal data analysis and geographical detector approaches, we obtain three significant findings: 1. both provinces have maintained steady rates of increase in ageing; 2. the older populations in Zhejiang and Jilin are mostly concentrated in the provincial capitals and nearby cities with reasonably established economies; and 3. the factors, including local fiscal expenditures, beds in hospitals and nursing homes, and coverage of social security, show a highly similar spatial pattern between older populations in Zhejiang and Jilin. The q-values of all the selected socioeconomic factors in Jilin showed a growth trend, indicating that the spatial correlation between these factors and ageing is strengthening year on year, that is, the resources gained from the socioeconomic development of Jilin have shifted steadily toward old-age services. As a consequence, a vicious circle of the slowing down of the economic growth drives away working forces and quickens the pace of population ageing, is present. From a policy perspective, Jilin province is strongly dependent on state-owned enterprises characterised by institutional rigidity, an inflexible market economy and an under-developed private sector, all of which are profoundly influenced by ageing. The consequence is large population outflows of young people. In contrast, the economy of Zhejiang province is partially decoupled from the ageing trend, so the gap in level of development between its counties has been narrowing. The policy implication here is that Zhejiang represents an active private economy that has coped successfully with ageing by attracting young migrants and developing new forms of development, such as the digital economy.