Abstract
Abstract 1 1 The authors want to thank all persons that contributed to the scenario study perspectives of pathways of Dutch agriculture in 2050. The studies/activities on which this paper is based were financed through the Dutch ministry of agriculture, nature and food quality (project number BO-43–012.02.065), the KB project 1–2-A4 Models across scales of Wageningen University and Research (Topsector AgriFood KB 34–005–005) and the H2020 project SUPREMA (Grant Agreement No 773499). Climate change mitigation requires a transition towards a more sustainable system which eventually achieves circularity and climate-neutrality in all sectors, including agriculture. Despite the consensus about this ultimate goal, there is no unique way forward to achieve it. In this regard, usual questions that policy-makers face without having a clear answer relate to the potential deployment of new technology, the possibility of limiting certain economic activities, the externalities that will emanate from their interventions, etc. The aim of this study is to support the policy debate by exploring the potential impacts of several pathways that Dutch agriculture could follow for this transition. This paper presents a methodological approach on how to translate policy objectives into sustainability requirements using a linear programming (LP) model. This model which delivers insights on the optimal size of several agricultural activities has been used for facilitating stakeholder participation in scenario design. By using the Netherlands as a case study, an integrated assessment of several pathways that the Dutch agricultural sector could follow was carried out to contribute to the design of the future development strategy. The outcomes of the multidisciplinary assessment shows that it is feasible to meet long-term (2050) climate and environmental objectives for Dutch agriculture along different pathways. More specifically, limiting the size of the livestock sectors turned out to be necessary to achieve the intended emissions reductions. As a result the land use changed, with an increase in (agro-)forestry being unavoidable when strict climate neutrality would be required. • Dutch agriculture can meet long-term (2050) climate and environmental objectives. • Agricultural scenarios are assessed by combining economic and environmental models. • Limiting livestock numbers and afforestation are key to meet climate goals. • Reducing the size of the livestock sector lead to limited adjustments in prices. • The trade position of Dutch agriculture could change when pursuing climate goals.
Highlights
It is unquestionable that addressing the challenges that climate change is imposing to modern society results in a ‘titanic’ task
Policy-makers should not look at this issue as they have tradi tionally done with some other economic problems, i.e. designing policy interventions by following a ‘top-down’ approach with limited participation of economic agents considered in a broad sense
In the context of this study a broad range of quantitative outcomes resulting from the different modelling tools (AGMEMOD, INITIATOR, linear programming (LP), BBPR, input-output model, etc.) was generated
Summary
It is unquestionable that addressing the challenges that climate change is imposing to modern society results in a ‘titanic’ task. Climate change and circularity require societal interventions in a multi-dimensional manner as well as collaborative efforts from various actors in the food system (Hoes et al, 2019). In this context, policy-makers might wonder how to articulate the process of designing public interventions when involving various stakeholders with con flicting interests in the consultation. An answer can be found in eco nomic models which contribute to create a common ‘ground’ for all stakeholders and bring some structure to the discussion
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