Alerting trends in epidemiology for calcific aortic valve disease, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Abstract

To assess the trends in calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) epidemiology, with an emphasis on CAVD mortality, leading risk factors, and their associations with age, period, and birth cohort. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The age-period-cohort model was employed to study the detailed trends of CAVD mortality and its leading risk factors. Globally, CAVD showed unsatisfactory results from 1990 to 2019, with the CAVD deaths of 127000 in 2019. CAVD mortality was substantially reduced in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries (-1.45%, 95% confidence interval (CI) [-1.61, -1.30]), mildly increased in high-middle SDI countries (0.22%, 95% CI [0.06, 0.37]), and unchanged in other SDI quintiles. There was a noticeable transition in CAVD deaths from younger to older populations globally. The CAVD mortality increased exponentially with age, and the male had higher mortality than the female before 80 years old. Favorable period (0.69, 95% CI [0.66, 0.72]) and birth effects (0.30, 95% CI [0.22, 0.43]) were mainly observed in high SDI countries, while unfavorable effects were mostly noticed in high-middle SDI countries. High systolic blood pressure was the leading risk factor of CAVD deaths globally and it showed favorable trends in high SDI regions. Although CAVD mortality reduction was observed globally, unfavorable period and cohort effects were found in many countries. Increase of mortality rate among the population≥85 years was the common challenge across all SDI quintiles, stressing the necessity to further improve health care for CAVD patients worldwide.