Abstract
The aim of the study is to compare the visibility and, possibly, the objectivity of various mathematical techniques to identify the connection between mortality and certain external causes with the previous alcohol consumption. Methods. A frequency analysis was carried out on the basis of 4,768 acts of forensic, forensic histologic and forensic and chemical examination of dead bodies, residents of Cheboksary and Novocheboksarsk cities copied out in the Republican Office of the Chief Medical Examiner (Ministry of Health of Chuvashia) for the period 1997-2002 with confirmed posthumous presence or absence of alcohol in the blood. The dead bodies were classified by sex, age, ethanol concentration in the blood, forensic medical diagnoses (ciphers ICD10: T58, T68, T15-T19, T66-T78, S00-S09, I250, I200-I209, I241-I249, I252-I259, T00-T07, S00-S39). The data obtained were investigated by the methods of correlation analysis (Spirman), Kolmogorov-Smirnov with Lillieforce correction, xi-square (х2). Results. The alcohol intake immediately before the event increased the risk of death from hypothermia (the proportion of people died with alcohol in the blood 2.10 % - 74.07 %), by drowning (2.69 % - 73.08 %) and asphyxia of upper airway (2.57 % - 73.68 %), but did not affect death frequency from head trauma, sudden cardiac death, pedestrian accidents and murders. Of all the investigated death causes the maximum was in the range of posthumous alcohol content in the blood 1-3.9 %. The most effective method of connection detection between alcohol consumption and the risk of death from any causes was calculation of rank correlation between birth cohorts divided into two subgroups based on the principle of presence or absence of alcohol in the blood of postmortem. In addition, to determine the alcohol effect on mortality increase from any causes, it is necessary to compare the sex-disaggregated samples of individuals whose blood was found posthumously and those without alcohol in the blood. Conclusion. Standardization of methods of statistical analysis of alcohol consumption with any death cause is necessary.
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