Aktüeryal Teknikleri Kullanılarak Huzurevleri İçin Adil Bağış Hesaplaması: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Background: Nursing homes continue to play an important role in elderly services, including offering physical, psychological, and social support. For this reason, it is crucial to ensure their sustainable financial management. Aims: This study aims to build a model that incorporates factors such as age, gender, and real rate of return, all of which affect the minimum amount of the one-time endowment. Methods: In this study, the minimum endowment is calculated using actuarial techniques by considering the age and gender of the nursing home resident along with the real rate of return for endowments. Our model incorporates a probability of spending calculated using mortality rates from Turkey Life Tables (TRH-2010) and a 2% real rate of return. Results: The expected value of ₺1 spent each year as long as the individual lives varies with age and gender. For a 60-year-old female, this expected value is over 0.99 (i.e., 99% probability of spending ₺1 during the year), whereas it falls below 0.50 for an 81-year-old, and 0.10 for a 90-year-old. For a 60-year-old male, the expected value is about 0.99, which falls below 0.50 for a 78-year-old, and 0.10 for an 89-year-old. Thus, the customary endowment is insufficient for female elderly persons below the age of 71 and male elderly persons below the age of 68. Conclusion: Many factors can affect the fair amount of a one-time endowment. Failure to take these factors into account may seriously jeopardize the fairness and sustainability of elderly services.