AIS-based characterization of navigation conflicts along the US Atlantic Coast prior to development of wind energy

Abstract

This study characterizes navigation conflicts in a region with a large traffic volume along the United States (US) Atlantic Coast, using an empirical approach that analyzes Automated Identification System (AIS) data for a full year (2010). The region includes areas proposed for wind energy development, and this characterization of vessel conflicts could be useful as a baseline to evaluating the effect of offshore wind areas on navigation conflicts and vessel collisions. There have been no collisions reported within the study area. This study analyzes the one year of AIS data to obtain vessel tracks and makes simultaneous pairwise comparisons to determine the number and rate of vessel encounters and near-misses (navigation conflicts). For vessel pairs in an encounter (3 nm distance; crossing, head-on, overtaking), a ‘blind vessel’ assumption was used to calculate the number of potential near misses and potential collisions. Graphical analysis of the frequency of vessels involved in potential near misses produced vessel response curves that provided the time of peak frequencies prior to the time of closest approach for each encounter type. These peak times were up to 600 s prior to the time of closest approach. The analyses of potential near misses and collision used the data during the period between the time of peak frequency and the time of closest approach to filter the data used in the calculation of the probability of potential collisions. The period included collsion avoidance maneuvering. Statistical analyses are made to estimate the point values and uncertainty of near miss rates and the probability of potential collisions for each type of encounter from which bounding estimates of the collision rates are made. These bounding collision rates are found to be comparable with estimates from previous studies. Causation probabilities were also estimated and compared with previous studies. The response curves may also have utility in the simulation of navigation conflicts. The use of surrogate data to evaluate the effect of wind energy areas is considered, though their usefulness depends on comparability of traffic density and the level and type of traffic control systems implemented.