Abstract
The current state of aviation weather forecasting and its effect on weather-related aircraft accidents are reviewed. The authors predict that new approaches will be necessary if the technological gap is to be narrowed between weather forecasting and aircraft design and utilization. The importance of mesoscale modeling and new remote sensing devices is discussed. (Increased emphasis in these areas is to some extent a response to aviation needs and also to the need for improved synoptic-scale modeling.) Statistical and deterministic models that can assist in the prediction of the evolution of area weather are currently under development, but major obstacles, such as the difficulty in parameterizing the planetary boundary layer, suggest that useful models are at least 10 years away. Furthermore, it is predicted that, although weather modification and aircraft design will undoubtedly play important roles, the most immediate improvements will come from departures from traditional approaches to forecasting.
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