Airport Capacity Enhancement and Flight Predictability

Abstract

Justifications for enhancements to airport capacity are often framed in relation to flight delay reductions, but improvements to flight predictability also offer substantial benefits to the health of the aviation system. “Predictability” is defined in this paper as block time adherence and is measured as the difference between scheduled and actual block time. This research, using historical data, quantifies the impact on flight predictability of one airport's enhancement of infrastructure capacity. A case study using statistical methodologies, including cluster analysis of national airspace days and quantile regression of flights, identifies how deployment of a fifth runway at Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport in Georgia affected the predictability of flight arrivals. The analysis identifies four scenarios—defined according to the level of national airspace strain and terminal airspace weather disruption—for which inclusion of the fifth runway in the runway configuration is associated with either improvement or degradation in predictability. If broad gains are to be made in improving predictability for the national airspace, then capacity enhancements may offer a limited contribution to what must be a multifaceted solution.