Aircrafts Monitoring and Early Warning Based on Air Traffic Complexity Measure Analysis

Abstract

This paper studied air traffic complexity by the theory of complex analysis. The calculation system of air traffic complexity measure and the robustness analysis of air traffic flow were proposed. When the aircraft influenced the air traffic flow complexity mostly, the flight warning system began to work. This paper discussed the theory of the monitor- ing and early warning based on the complexity of air traffic complexity measure analysis. The studies shown that the method provided in this paper could discern the state parameter associated through technical indicators from complex, un- certain data in the calculation of system complexity, and the research also pointed out the flights which had larger effects on the air traffic through robustness change. The researches show that the complexity theory proposed in this paper can carry on monitoring and early warning on flights through the complexity measure and the air traffic complexity analysis. Aerospace system is a classic complex giant system, which is composed of aerospace structure, air traffic flow consisting of aircraft in operation, air traffic control rules and programs, as well as management and controller' ability. The complexity of air traffic management is up to three factors: 1.The mutual influence among people, equipment, environ- ment and management; 2. Partial but not complete certainty of the system's condition during air traffic operation; 3. The difficulty of measuring data to evaluate the system objective- ly, which needs more than qualitative analysis based on ex- perts' research and scoring as well as flight statistics. The complexity of air traffic is a quantitative result under the interaction between aircraft-consisted air traffic flow and aerospace structure. The management of air traffic complexi- ty is a reliable method to handle comparative intense air traf- fic in order to identify the complicated air traffic condition and take effective actions including operation programs to scale down the complexity to an acceptable range or level with key factors which matter to the detected complexity. Based on that, it is a significant problem that how to quantify the predicted air traffic flow complexity.