Aircraft Block Speed Calculations for JOSAC/USTRANSCOM Aircraft Using Linear Regression

Abstract

Abstract : Joint Operational Support Airlift Center (JOSAC)/United States Transportation Command (USTRANSCOM) long-range flight planners utilize a number of formulas and planning factors when planning missions. Air Force Pamphlet 10-1403 includes an aircraft block speeds table for USAF Major Weapons Systems and Civil Reserve Air Fleet aircraft. This table provides flight planners with a reference to quickly determine aircraft flight times between airfields based upon distance. They can use this information to plan the mission crew duty time (CDT) and flight duty periods (FDP) for each mission they plan. But currently, no aircraft block speeds table exists for Operational Support Airlift (OSA) aircraft. This research provides a method to calculate the aircraft block speeds table for JOSAC/USTRANSCOM aircraft. Evaluation of the model used in building the aircraft block speeds table requires an examination of almost 200,000 flights over the course of 5 years. A linear regression model is used to create aircraft block speeds for specific flight distances. For the given data set, each flight's distance versus average flight time is regressed, providing an equation for the average predicted distance per unit of flight time. Additionally, each flight's average speed versus distance is regressed, providing an equation for the predicted speed per unit of distance. Twenty-three different USAF OSA aircraft models are examined. These aircraft are further broken down into 13 different groups based upon aircraft cruise speed. Regression statistics are analyzed and used to determine the significance and goodness-of-fit of the model to each aircraft. Results obtained from this research provide insights into the usefulness of a JOSAC/USTRANSCOM aircraft block speeds table. Overall, the models do a good job of predicting the speed of each aircraft per unit of distance. The research shows that it makes sense to create an OSA aircraft block speeds table for long-term mission planning.