Airburst warning and response

Abstract

It is virtually certain (probability>99%) that the next destructive NEO event will be an airburst. Planetary defense is usually assumed to have the primary goal of maximizing the number of lives saved, but it can be argued that more emphasis should be placed on maximizing the probability of saving lives. For the latter goal, it is far more effective to create an early warning and civil defense plan than a mitigation plan that involves deflecting a large NEO. Because early warning and civil defense will almost certainly be needed long before the first deflection is ever required, the credibility of the planetary defense community and its recommendations will be put to its first serious test by an airburst. Successful response to an airburst event will make it much more likely that recommendations for mitigation by deflection will be accepted by decision makers and the public. Focusing more attention on the second goal will, as a side effect, benefit the primary goal.