Abstract
Significance While consumers are regaining confidence, demand for international air travel is stagnant as most countries have border control measures in place. The relaunch of commercial aviation is in the hands of national governments. Impacts Mandatory pre-flight screening will gradually disappear, replaced by a structured exchange of passengers’ health information data. Business travel will be at least 10-20% lower, and more remote working will blur distinctions between business and leisure travel. Traditional carriers will refocus their strategies on long-haul and online retailing while developing new capacity for cargo. Punctuality will lose relevance as new metrics are adopted to measure sanitisation and cabin cleanliness.
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