Abstract
Both researchers and Government Agencies see aviation as an important driver for regional development and national integration. Thus, this sector has been a matter of concern for the government who has ways to stimulate the aero activity. The Regional Aviation Development Program (PDAR) has been currently under development implemented in Brazil. This program foresees public investments in airport infrastructure and operational subsidies for airlines to enhance the sector operation and increase the number of locations served by regional aviation. This paper presents a model for estimating passenger demand potential through multiple linear regression to cover the great majority of the federative units (states) of Pernambuco, Paraíba, Rio Grande do Norte, Ceará, and Piauí in the northeast of Brazil. Subsequently, localities are suggested to optimize the resources of the PDAR, and we concluded that it is likely that there are regions with higher demand potential than some regions, which are already served by the airlines. Hence, we assumed that by strategically directing investments to specific localities, companies operate without subsidies, which in turn can be directed to airlines used to integrate the country. This making regional aviation more sustainable leading development to isolated localities, and thus efficiently contributing to reducing the Brazilian social inequality.
Highlights
The impact of regular regional flights on economic development is widely studied in the literature (Postorino; Praticò, 2012; Adler et al, 2013; Freire; Silva, 2017; Fageda et al, 2018; Das et al, 2020; Merket; Beck, 2020; Wu et al, 2020)
This process caused the massification of air transport in the nations previously mentioned in the mid-1970s, but it only happened in Brazil from the beginning of the 2000s
Regulatory flexibility has apparently brought benefits to consumers. This finding can be seen in the historical series for the period from 2000 to 2015, which was made available by the National Civil Aviation Agency (ANAC) (2016), as it is the sector's regulatory body, regarding the number of passengers transported, flights performed, aircraft occupancy rate and fare prices
Summary
The impact of regular regional flights on economic development is widely studied in the literature (Postorino; Praticò, 2012; Adler et al, 2013; Freire; Silva, 2017; Fageda et al, 2018; Das et al, 2020; Merket; Beck, 2020; Wu et al, 2020). In Brazil, regulatory flexibility began with a delay of more than 20 years when compared to more developed countries, such as the United States, France, England and Germany (Ruiz et al, 2014) This process caused the massification of air transport in the nations previously mentioned in the mid-1970s, but it only happened in Brazil from the beginning of the 2000s. Regulatory flexibility has apparently brought benefits to consumers This finding can be seen in the historical series for the period from 2000 to 2015, which was made available by the National Civil Aviation Agency (ANAC) (2016), as it is the sector's regulatory body, regarding the number of passengers transported, flights performed, aircraft occupancy rate and fare prices. Between 2012 and 2015, this growth decreased slightly, reaching annual rates of 2.75%, albeit still positive This increase in the scale of the competing national air market allowed a reduction in average fares (ANAC, 2016).
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