Air Temperature Projections over the Mid and Southern of Iraq during the 21th Century Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Scenarios

Abstract

Global climate conditions and hydrologic processes have changed significantly as a result of climate change, and as long as global warming persists, extreme events will probably more frequently happen. Climate change significantly affects Iraq through variations in air temperature, environment, agriculture and water supply. This study aimed to evaluate the observed period of temperature 19 80–2023 and the Projecting future trends of air temperature for mid and southern Iraq using BNU-ESM, CCSM4, HadGEM2-AO, and MIRIOC5 climate models from CMIP5 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios during the periods 2016–2035, 2046–2065, and 2081–2100. The findings verified that, in each of the two RCPs scenarios temperature would increase with different levels. the results showed that the temperature anomaly increased to +15.6 °C, and +18.8 °C under RCR4.5 and RCP8.5 in the MIRIOC5 model, especially in the last decade of the twentieth century. The areas of Iraq most impacted by high temperatures are the south and southeast (Basra, Missan, Thi-Qar, and Muthanna) provinces. In the first period, On the other hand, the less effect areas for the temperature increase were (Anbar and northeast of Diyala) +2.4°C, and +4.4°C for HadGEM2-AO model under RCR4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. Through all periods, CCSM4, and MIRIOC5 models were the most identical in results. The findings can aid in the evaluation of future drought risks in Iraq by policymakers. Developing suitable adaptation techniques to counter act climate change can also be beneficial.