Air quality, nitrogen use efficiency and food security in China are improved by cost-effective agricultural nitrogen management.

PurposeTo achieve the dual goals of decarbonization and food security, this paper examines China's carbon footprint reduction in 2050 based on current mitigation strategies.Design/methodology/approachConsidering publications as featured evidence, this study develops an investigation of agricultural decarbonization in China. First, the authors summarize the mitigation strategies for agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the existing literature. Second, the authors demonstrate the domestic food production target in 2050 and the projection target's projected life-cycle-based GHG emissions at the commodity level. Lastly, the authors forecast China's emission removal in the agri-food sector in 2050 concerning current mitigation strategies and commodity productions. The authors highlight the extent to which each mitigation strategy contributes to decarbonization in China.FindingsPractices promoting sustainable development in the agri-food sector significantly contribute to GHG emission removal. The authors find mitigation strategies inhibiting future GHG emissions in the agri-food sector comprise improving nitrogen use efficiency in fertilizers, changing food consumption structure, manure management, cover crops, food waste reduction, dietary change of livestock and covered manure. A 10% improvement in nitrogen use efficiency contributes to 5.03% of GHG emission removal in the agri-food sector by 2050. Reducing food waste and food processing from 30% to 20% would inhibit 1.59% of the total GHG emissions in the agri-food sector.Originality/valueThis study contributes to policy discussions by accounting for agricultural direct and indirect emission components and assessing the dynamic changes in those related components. This study also extends existing research by forecasting to which extent the decarbonization effects implemented by current mitigation strategies can be achieved while meeting 2050 food security in China.

Rising agricultural water scarcity in China is driven by expansion of irrigated cropland in water scarce regions

Improving agricultural water productivity to ensure food security in China under changing environment: From research to practice

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increasing the size of carbon sinks are closely related to food security in agricultural systems. This study conducted an in-depth data analysis of previous studies to explore the dynamic causal relationships among the reduction of emissions, carbon sink increases, and food security in agricultural systems. The fixed-effect regression model, causality tests, PVAR model, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition were used to explore correlations among the three variables. The results show that the national average carbon sinks surged from 2662.194 Mg in 2000 to 4010.613 Mg in 2020, with the food security index concurrently climbing from 0.198 to 0.308. Moreover, GHG emissions exhibited a negative growth rate from 2016 onwards, yet the 2020 mean remained 142.625 Mg above the 2000 baseline. The agricultural “three subsidies” reform has not directly promoted food security, but significantly inhibited GHG emissions. However, conflicts exist between emissions reduction and carbon sinks increase in agricultural systems and food security. At the whole level, changes in carbon sinks only have a positive effect on the increase in GHG emissions, whereas changes in GHG emissions have a positive effect on both carbon sinks and food security. Changes in food security strongly inhibit the increase in carbon sinks. This relationship varies among distinct grain functional zones. Policy objectives should be coordinated, target thresholds set, and policies classified according to different functional orientations, to achieve a win–win situation for food supply and low-carbon development.

Food security and digital economy in China: A pathway towards sustainable development

Eliminating hunger and ensuring food security is one of the specific goals of sustainable development of the United Nations in 2030, and food production is of great significance to food availability. Based on this, this paper investigates the impact of digital inclusive finance on food security by constructing a fixed effects model using panel data for 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2020. The results found that: (1) Digital inclusive finance significantly and positively affects food security, and the results remain robust after robustness tests and endogeneity tests. (2) The scale of farmland operations plays a positive mediating role in the effect of digital inclusive finance on food security, and the level of agricultural machinery positively moderates the effect of digital inclusive finance on food security. (3) Heterogeneity tests show that there is a positive effect of digital inclusive finance on food security in eastern China, and a non-significant effect of digital inclusive finance on food security in central and western regions;. There is a significant positive effect of digital inclusive finance on food security in China’s main grain marketing areas and balanced production and marketing areas, and a non-significant effect of digital inclusive finance on food security in the main grain producing areas.

Water management and crop production for food security in China: A review

Since 2010, China has changed its position in the world grain market from a net exporter to a net importer. The total grain trade deficit was $420 million in 2010. However, the increasing grain import contradicts its food security policy of achieving a 95% grain self-sufficiency rate. Additionally, Chinese agricultural productivity is lower than the world average, and much lower than high-income countries, which puts grave pressure on the country’s food security target. Toward this end, the study investigates China’s food security status in 2030 and the impact of alternative policies on food security. A global CGE framework (GTAP) has been used to estimate the impact of agriculture and trade policy interventions on food security in China. A recursive process is used to project the model to 2050 under business as usual. The study has attempted various scenarios to study the impact of food security in China. The results from this study suggest that China is expected to achieve a grain self-sufficiency level of a little above 90% by the year 2030. The meat tariff reduction has a greater positive impact on China’s food security than the other scenarios. In addition, most of the policies are beneficial for national welfare. The total value of agricultural imports and exports are expected to increase substantially. In addition, the current Red Line arable land protection policy (1800 million mu) is determined to be insufficient to allow for the production of enough grain by 2030 to meet the desired 95% self-sufficiency rate. Study results indicate that arable land should be strictly protected for food production against pressure from industrialization and urbanization. However, it is only part of the food security solution and, policy interventions are required to ensure that China’s food security targets are met.

The study identifies markets, technologies and policies that influence fertiliser nitrogen (N) use in agriculture by Finland and China. Specifically the study examines how policy measures influence N usage in Finland and compares these with the corresponding policies in China. It was found that greater food security in China is a major driver for its high nitrogen usage. Food security in China is aimed for by manipulating price-ratios of inputs and outputs through direct and indirect subsidies on fertilisers. The dissimilar policy goals and measures between Finland and China explain the differences in N application rates nationally, regionally and over time. The study suggests that the effectiveness of agri-environmental payments and the efficiency of manure use in Finland could be improved, and that reducing N application rates could be a key step for China and would be achieved by market mechanisms determining price-ratios of input to output.

China's increasing food consumption, particularly for animal products, presents a substantial challenge to mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, not only within China but also extending to its trading partners. In this study, we employ the well-established food system integrated assessment model (GLOBIOM-China) to comprehensively investigate GHG emissions within the context of China's future food consumption. Our study indicates that in the baseline scenario (BAU), GHG emissions from China's food consumption side are projected to be 965 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2 eq) by 2060, similar to the current level. Domestically, ruminant production accounts for a substantial 44% of total consumption-based emissions. Meanwhile, livestock-related methane emissions take prominence in terms of different gas categories, comprising a significant 45%. Virtual GHG emissions import is expected to decrease due to the deceleration of land use change, while the GHG emissions attributable to livestock product imports are projected to incrementally rise, eventually constituting 17.2% of the total food consumption-based emissions. Striving for food self-sufficiency (SS scenario) offers a pathway to diminishing China's food system GHG emissions and virtually imported emissions by 6% and 43%, respectively. However, this scenario presents an increase of domestic emissions by 2% and simultaneously poses challenges to domestic land use and other related indicators. Maintaining basic food self-sufficiency, and reducing calorie intake from animal sources and improving production practices contribute to a 216 Mt CO2eq reduction of total GHG emissions. This approach not only holds promise for emission reduction but also brings broader benefits such as decreased agricultural commodity prices (by -28%), reduced nitrogen fertilizer uses (by -13%), diminished agricultural land requirement (by -10%), and only 2% decline in per capita calorie intake. Our study reconciles GHG mitigation strategies and food security within China's food system, thereby contributing significantly to global sustainable development.

The interconnection between urbanization, the environment, and food security necessitates an exploration of their coupling coordination to advance the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals. However, limited research directly addresses the feasibility and strategies required to achieve such coordination. This study investigates the coupling coordination and spatial heterogeneity between urbanization, the environment, and food security in China from 2004 to 2020, employing the coupling coordination degree model, the spatial correlation model, the Dagum Gini coefficient, and the obstacle degree model. The results show that: (1) the level of coordinated development between urbanization, the environment, and food security in China has significantly increased, as evidenced by a remarkable rise in the coupling coordination degree; (2) a robust positive spatial correlation is observed in the coupling coordination degree, with “Low-Low” clusters predominantly concentrated in northwest China and “High-High” clusters primarily located in southeast China; (3) inter-regional differences are identified as the primary cause of this spatial heterogeneity; (4) food security has emerged as the foremost obstacle to coordinated development between urbanization, the environment, and food security in China. Optimizing the rational allocation of natural resources across different sectors, enhancing resource use efficiency, and strengthening environmental pollution control and management have been proven to be crucial measures and key strategies for promoting their coordinated development. This study provides a novel perspective on balancing the intricate relationship between urbanization, environmental protection, and food security, which is conducive to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals in developing countries.

Climate change characterized by global warming has seriously affected natural systems, the human economy, and agricultural production. China feeds 20% of the world’s population with 9% of the global total arable land. Climate change poses risks and challenges to agricultural production and food security in China, the world’s largest producer and consumer of food products. Agriculture is one of the sectors most vulnerable to climate change. Climate change and extreme weather events affect the quantity and quality of arable land, crop growth, and suitable planting areas, leading to the aggravation of the occurrence of crop diseases and insect pests and reduction in the yield and quality of major grain crops, which ultimately significantly affect the crop production

Food security is a vital material foundation for a nation's development and has been a topic of significant concern on the international stage in recent years. With a population exceeding 1.4 billion, China is not only a major producer but also a substantial consumer of food. Ensuring food security in China is not only a top priority for its socio-economic development but also a driving force in maintaining the stability of the global food supply chain and reducing the number of hungry people worldwide. However, a lack of comprehensive research into the Chinese food security system remains. This study addresses this gap by constructing a comprehensive evaluation framework encompassing four dimensions: food supply, accessibility, production stability, and sustainability. Utilizing the Moran's Index and generating LISA (Local Indicators of Spatial Association) maps, we analyze the spatial correlations of food security. The Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation are applied to assess heterogeneity and spatial disparities. Furthermore, this research employs the Exponential Smoothing (ETS) model to forecast food security trends. The findings reveal that the overall composite food security score exhibited fluctuations, initially increasing and reaching its peak of 0.407 in 2003, followed by a subsequent sharp decline after 2019. Spatially, food security exhibits correlations, with the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and Northeast regions consistently showing high-high clustering. In contrast, the Western and Southern regions exhibit low-low clustering at specific periods. The Dagum Gini coefficient indicates that overall food security disparities are relatively small. However, these disparities have gradually expanded in recent years, with inter-group differences becoming predominant after 2005. As indicated by the kernel density estimation, the dynamic distribution of food security initially widens and then narrows, suggesting a shift from dispersed to concentrated data distribution. This phenomenon is accompanied by polarization and convergence trends, particularly evident after 2015. According to the ETS model, the study forecasts a substantial risk of declining food security in China over the next decade, largely influenced by the ongoing pandemic. In conclusion, this research provides a comprehensive assessment of the changing status of food security in China. It offers early warnings through predictive analysis, addressing the existing research gaps in the field of food security.

Against the backdrop of global warming, intensifying regional conflicts, deglobalization, and the spread of diseases, global food security is facing severe challenges. Studying the food security situation in China and the United States in depth can provide practical experience for formulating food security policies for countries around the world and promoting global food security governance. On the basis of a meticulous review of the evolving connotations of food security, this study adopts six dimensions-quantity security, quality security, circulation security, economic security, ecological resource security, and policy security-as breakthrough points to construct a framework consisting of food security evaluation indicator system comprising 29 specific indicators. The CRITIC-MEREC-MARCOS model is applied to evaluate the status of food security in China and the United States from 2000 to 2022, while the obstacle degree model (ODM) model is utilized to identify factors impeding food security between the two countries. The results indicate that the level of food security in China has shown slight fluctuations initially, followed by a steady upward trend. The gap with the United States is continuously narrowing. However, significant differences between China and the United States still exist in terms of economic security, ecological resource security, and policy security. Furthermore, due to the limited productivity of agricultural labor, scarcity of water and soil resources, and low efficiency in the use of fertilizers and pesticides, China's food security is subject to economic and environmental constraints. The restrictions imposed by economic security and ecological resource security on China's food security are showing an increasing trend year by year. For the United States, with the obstruction of grain exports and the increasing frequency of drought disasters, the impact of circulation security and ecological resource security on food security is becoming increasingly prominent. In the future, China and the United States should join hands to address challenges, actively promote international cooperation in food security, and drive sustainable development for humanity.

Balancing crop production and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture soil requires a better understanding and quantification of crop GHG emissions intensity, a measure of GHG emissions per unit crop production. Here we conduct a state-of-the-art estimate of the spatial-temporal variability of GHG emissions intensities for wheat, maize, and rice in China from 1949 to 2012 using an improved agricultural ecosystem model (Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model-Agriculture Version 2.0) and meta-analysis covering 172 field-GHG emissions experiments. The results show that the GHG emissions intensities of these croplands from 1949 to 2012, on average, were 0.10-1.31kgCO2 -eq/kg, with a significant increase rate of 1.84-3.58×10-3 kgCO2 -eqkg-1 year-1 . Nitrogen fertilizer was the dominant factor contributing to the increase in GHG emissions intensity in northern China and increased its impact in southern China in the 2000s. Increasing GHG emissions intensity implies that excessive fertilizer failed to markedly stimulate crop yield increase in China but still exacerbated soil GHG emissions. This study found that overfertilization of more than 60% was mainly located in the winter wheat-summer maize rotation systems in the North China Plain, the winter wheat-rice rotation systems in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and southwest China, and most of the double rice systems in the South. Our simulations suggest that roughly a one-third reduction in the current N fertilizer application level over these "overfertilization" regions would not significantly influence crop yield but decrease soil GHG emissions by 29.60%-32.50% and GHG emissions intensity by 0.13-0.25kgCO2 -eq/kg. This reduction is about 29% and 5% of total agricultural soil GHG emissions in China and the world, respectively. This study suggests that improving nitrogen use efficiency would be an effective strategy to mitigate GHG emissions and sustain China's food security.