Air quality effects of alternative fuels. Final report

Abstract

To support the Alternative Fuels Utilization Program, a comparison of potential air quality effects of alternative transportation fuels is being performed. This report presents the results of Phase 1 of this program, focusing on reformulated gasoline (RFG), methanol blended with 15 percent gasoline (M85), and compressed natural gas (CNG). The fuels are compared in terms of effects on simulated future concentrations of ozone and mobile source air toxics in a photochemical grid model. The fuel comparisons were carried out for the future year 2020 and assumed complete replacement of gasoline in the projected light-duty gasoline fleet by each of the candidate fuels. The model simulations were carried out for the areas surrounding Los Angeles and Baltimore/DC, and other (non-mobile) sources of atmospheric emissions were projected according to published estimates of economic and population growth, and planned emission control measures specific to each modeling domain. The future-year results are compared to a future-year run with all gasoline vehicle emissions removed. The results of the comparison indicate that the use of M85 is likely to produce similar ozone and air toxics levels as those projected from the use of RFG. Substitution of CNG is projected to produce significantly lower levels of ozone and the mobile source air toxics than those projected for RFG or M85. The relative benefits of CNG substitution are consistent in both modeling domains. The projection methodologies used for the comparison are subject to a large uncertainty, and modeled concentration distributions depend on meteorological conditions. The quantitative comparison of fuel effects is thus likely to be sensitive to alternative assumptions. The consistency of the results for two very different modeling domains, using very different base assumptions, lends credibility to the qualitative differentiation among these fuels. 32 refs., 42 figs., 47 tabs.