Abstract
Abstract. In this study, we quantify the impacts of shipping pollution on air quality and shortwave radiative effect in northern Norway, using WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting with chemistry) simulations combined with high-resolution, real-time STEAM2 (Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model version 2) shipping emissions. STEAM2 emissions are evaluated using airborne measurements from the ACCESS (Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society) aircraft campaign, which was conducted in the summer 2012, in two ways. First, emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are derived for specific ships by combining in situ measurements in ship plumes and FLEXPART-WRF plume dispersion modeling, and these values are compared to STEAM2 emissions for the same ships. Second, regional WRF-Chem runs with and without STEAM2 ship emissions are performed at two different resolutions, 3 km × 3 km and 15 km × 15 km, and evaluated against measurements along flight tracks and average campaign profiles in the marine boundary layer and lower troposphere. These comparisons show that differences between STEAM2 emissions and calculated emissions can be quite large (−57 to +148 %) for individual ships, but that WRF-Chem simulations using STEAM2 emissions reproduce well the average NOx, SO2 and O3 measured during ACCESS flights. The same WRF-Chem simulations show that the magnitude of NOx and ozone (O3) production from ship emissions at the surface is not very sensitive (< 5 %) to the horizontal grid resolution (15 or 3 km), while surface PM10 particulate matter enhancements due to ships are moderately sensitive (15 %) to resolution. The 15 km resolution WRF-Chem simulations are used to estimate the regional impacts of shipping pollution in northern Norway. Our results indicate that ship emissions are an important source of pollution along the Norwegian coast, enhancing 15-day-averaged surface concentrations of NOx ( ∼ +80 %), SO2 ( ∼ +80 %), O3 ( ∼ +5 %), black carbon ( ∼ +40 %), and PM2.5 ( ∼ +10 %). The residence time of black carbon originating from shipping emissions is 1.4 days. Over the same 15-day period, ship emissions in northern Norway have a global shortwave (direct + semi-direct + indirect) radiative effect of −9.3 m Wm−2.
Highlights
Shipping is an important source of air pollutants and their precursors, including carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) as well as organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC) aerosols (Corbett and Fischbeck, 1997; Corbett and Köhler, 2003)
STEAM2 emissions, which represent individual ships based on high-resolution AIS ship positioning data, are compared with emissions for specific ships derived from measurements and plume dispersion modeling using FLEXPART-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)
Regional WRF-Chem simulations run with and without ship emissions are performed at two different resolutions to quantify the surface air quality changes and radiative effects from ship emissions in northern Norway in July 2012
Summary
Shipping is an important source of air pollutants and their precursors, including carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) as well as organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC) aerosols (Corbett and Fischbeck, 1997; Corbett and Köhler, 2003). It has recently been shown that routing international maritime traffic through the Arctic, as opposed to traditional routes through the Suez and Panama canals, will result in warming in the coming century and cooling on the long term (150 years) This is due to the opposite sign of impacts due to reduced SO2 linked to IMO regulations and reduced CO2 and O3 associated with fuel savings from using these shorter Arctic routes (Fuglestvedt et al, 2014). Dalsøren et al (2007) and Ødemark et al (2012) have shown that shipping emissions influence air quality and climate along the Norwegian and Russian coasts, where current Arctic ship traffic is the largest Both studies (for years 2000 and 2004) were based on emission data sets constructed using ship activity data from the AMVER (Automated Mutual-Assistance VEssel Rescue system) and COADS (Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set) data sets. We perform simulations with the WRF-Chem model, including STEAM2 ship emissions, in order to examine in Sect. 5 the local (i.e., at the plume scale) and regional impacts of shipping pollution on air quality and shortwave radiative effects along the coast of northern Norway
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