Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Ethanol Production and Use in São Paulo State, Brazil.

Noah Scovronick,Daniela França,Marcelo Alonso,Bernardo Rudorff,Saulo Freitas,Claudia Almeida,Karla Longo,Paul Wilkinson

doi:10.3390/ijerph13070695

Abstract

It is often argued that liquid biofuels are cleaner than fossil fuels, and therefore better for human health, however, the evidence on this issue is still unclear. Brazil’s high uptake of ethanol and role as a major producer makes it the most appropriate case study to assess the merits of different biofuel policies. Accordingly, we modeled the impact on air quality and health of two future fuel scenarios in São Paulo State: a business-as-usual scenario where ethanol production and use proceeds according to government predictions and a counterfactual scenario where ethanol is frozen at 2010 levels and future transport fuel demand is met with gasoline. The population-weighted exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone was 3.0 μg/m3 and 0.3 ppb lower, respectively, in 2020 in the scenario emphasizing gasoline compared with the business-as-usual (ethanol) scenario. The lower exposure to both pollutants in the gasoline scenario would result in the population living 1100 additional life-years in the first year, and if sustained, would increase to 40,000 life-years in year 20 and continue to rise. Without additional measures to limit emissions, increasing the use of ethanol in Brazil could lead to higher air pollution-related population health burdens when compared to policy that prioritizes gasoline.

Highlights

As one of the few alternatives to fossil fuels in the transport sector, liquid biofuels have received increased attention for their potential to help mitigate climate change, improve energy security, and revitalize agricultural economies
In 60% of municipalities, the annual average concentration of PM2.5 was higher in the Ethanol Expansion compared to the Fossil Fuel scenario, but there was marked seasonal variability: 100% of municipalities were higher in summer in the Ethanol Expansion scenario but only 19% in winter (Figure 3)
This study suggests that a transport policy promoting ethanol over gasoline would result in more particulate air pollution and higher levels of tropospheric ozone in São Paulo State

Summary

Introduction

As one of the few alternatives to fossil fuels in the transport sector, liquid biofuels have received increased attention for their potential to help mitigate climate change, improve energy security, and revitalize agricultural economies. Public Health 2016, 13, 695; doi:10.3390/ijerph13070695 www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph

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Conclusion