Abstract
Recent evidence shows that carbon emissions in China are likely to peak ahead of 2030. However, the social and economic impacts of such an early carbon peak have rarely been assessed. Here we focus on the economic costs and health benefits of different carbon mitigation pathways, considering both possible socio-economic futures and varying ambitions of climate policies. We find that an early peak before 2030 in line with the 1.5 °C target could avoid ~118,000 and ~614,000 PM2.5 attributable deaths under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1, in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Under the 2 °C target, carbon mitigation costs could be more than offset by health co-benefits in 2050, bringing a net benefit of $393–$3,017 billion (in 2017 USD value). This study not only provides insight into potential health benefits of an early peak in China, but also suggests that similar benefits may result from more ambitious climate targets in other countries.
Highlights
Recent evidence shows that carbon emissions in China are likely to peak ahead of 2030
We focus on the economic costs and health benefits of different carbon mitigation pathways, considering both possible socio-economic futures and varying ambitions of climate policies
We find that an early peak before 2030 in line with the 1.5 °C target could avoid ~118,000 and ~614,000 PM2.5 attributable deaths under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1, in 2030 and 2050, respectively
Summary
The implementation of climate policies to mitigate CO2 emissions would yield co-benefits in reduced air pollutant emissions in China Across all provinces in the analysis years of 2030 and 2050 (Fig. 6, Supplementary Table 8 and Fig. 9) compared to scenarios with no climate policy (SSPx_REF), except for SSP1_RCP2.6 in 2030 as discussed in the last section. The stricter the climate policy and the cleaner the socio-economic pathway, the earlier the peak of CO2 emissions will occur and the larger the air quality and public health co-benefits achieved in the long run. Implementing climate policies as soon as possible, especially decarbonizing the energy structure and applying CCS in industry and power sectors, can ensure achievement of the emission reduction target set in China’s NDC, and bring more net co-benefits in air quality, public health and the economy. Through policies that coordinate control of air pollution and carbon emissions can policymakers maximize their total benefits
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