Air quality and aerosol predictions at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and their applications

Abstract

Operational air quality predictions produced by NOAA/National Weather Service include predictions of ozone, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and wildfire smoke for the United States and predictions of windblown dust for the contiguous 48 states. Prediction maps are distributed at https://airquality.weather.gov/ and as a web service at https://idpgis.ncep.noaa.gov/arcgis/rest/services/NWS_Forecasts_Guidance_Warnings. Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) used for ozone and PM2.5 predictions was most recently updated in December 2018, when a unified bias-correction procedure was introduced for ozone and PM2.5. Wildfire smoke dispersion is operationally predicted using the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT). Wildfire smoke dispersion is included in version 4 of the Eulerian High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model that is being evaluated for operational implementation. One of the largest uncertainties for prediction of air quality over the U.S. involves specification of wildfire smoke emissions. Different smoke emission approaches used in these systems will be discussed.NOAA is testing ozone and PM2.5 predictions extended from 48 to 72 hours. Global aerosol predictions, which include biomass burning aerosols, are being tested for inclusion in one member of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) to replace the current standalone global aerosol prediction system. An overview of this testing will be presented.NOAA’s operational air quality predictions contribute to protection of lives and health in the United States. These predictions are used by state and local air quality forecasters to issue official air quality forecasts for their respective areas. General public accesses NOAA’s hourly predictions directly at https://airquality.weather.gov/. These predictions are also used in the applications about wildfire and health as well as in smoke vulnerability assessments lead by our partners at the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).