Air pollution forecast in cities by an air pollution index highly correlated with meteorological variables

Abstract

There are many different air pollution indexes which represent the global urban air pollution situation. The daily index studied here is also highly correlated with meteorological variables and this index is capable of identifying those variables that significantly affect the air pollution. The index is connected with attention levels of NO 2, CO and O 3 concentrations. The attention levels are fixed by a law proposed by the Italian Ministries of Health and Environment. The relation of that index with some meteorological variables is analysed by the linear multiple partial correlation statistical method. Florence, Milan and Vicence were selected to show the correlation among the air pollution index and the daily thermic excursion, the previous day's air pollution index and the wind speed. During the January–March period the correlation coefficient reaches 0.85 at Milan. The deterministic methods of forecasting air pollution concentrations show very high evaluation errors and are applied on limited areas around the observation stations, as opposed to the whole urban areas. The global air pollution, instead of the concentrations at specific observation stations, allows the evaluation of the level of the sanitary risk regarding the whole urban population.