Abstract

<b>Background:</b> there are few evidences on long-term effects of air pollution on asthma/allergic diseases incidence. <b>Aim:</b> to assess the effects of individual traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) exposure on asthma/allergic diseases incidence in a general population sample. <b>Methods:</b> two cross-sectional surveys (PI2, PI3) were performed in Pisa/Cascina 18 yrs apart. The longitudinal sample was constituted by participants in both surveys (n=1107). Individual TRAP exposure was estimated using reported (vehicular traffic exposure from questionnaire) and modelled data (PM2.5, NO2 and summer O3 estimated at 200 m spatial resolution at residential level with machine learning model). Cumulative incidence was obtained by comparing questionnaires health data in PI3 vs. PI2. Logistic regression analyses were adjusted for baseline confounding factors and stratified according to age at PI2 (≤ 46 and ≥ 47yrs). Multipollutant models were run to assess health effects of modelled exposure. <b>Results:</b> incidence was: 26.0% vs. 31.6% for allergic rhinitis (AR), 2.4% vs. 2.2% for asthma attacks (AA) in those aged ≤ 46 and ≥ 47, respectively; 2.5% for asthma diagnosis (AD) in both age groups. Reported TRAP exposure was associated with significantly higher risk of AR incidence in those ≤ 46 (RR=1.55 [1.01 – 2.39]) and ≥ 47 yrs (RR=1.83 [1.13 – 2.97]); 1µg/m3 increase in NO2 with AA in those ≤ 46 yrs (RR=1.35 [1.08 – 1.69]); 1 µg/m3 increase in O3 with AD in those ≥ 47 yrs (RR=1.48 [1.07 – 2.06]). <b>Conclusions:</b> Combination of questionnaire and model estimates of exposure to air pollutants is an added value for studying the associations with incident allergic conditions in a general population sample.

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