Abstract
The lockdown response to COVID-19 has resulted in an unprecedented reduction in global economic activity and associated air pollutant levels, especially from a decline in land transportation. We utilized a network of >10,000 air quality stations distributed over 34 countries during lockdown dates up until 15 May 2020 to obtain lockdown related anomalies for nitrogen dioxide, ozone and particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5). Pollutant anomalies were related to short-term health outcomes using empirical exposure-response functions. We estimate that there were a net total of 49,900 (11,000 to 90,000; 95% confidence interval) excess deaths and 89,000 (64,700 to 107,000) pediatric asthma emergency room visits avoided during lockdowns. In China and India alone, the PM2.5-related avoided excess mortality was 19,600 (15,300 to 24,000) and 30,500 (5700 to 68,000), respectively. While the state of COVID-19 imposed lockdown is not sustainable, these findings illustrate the potential health benefits gained by reducing “business as usual” air pollutant emissions from economic activities primarily through finding alternative transportation solutions.
Highlights
Long-term exposure to air pollution including fine particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) are estimated to be associated with ~8.8 million excess deaths from acute respiratory infections and non-communicable diseases annually (Burnett et al, 2018; Chowdhury et al, 2020; Lelieveld et al, 2020), while exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) results in 4 million new pediatric asthma cases annually (Achakulwisut et al, 2019)
With the rapid emer gence of the recent coronavirus (COVID-19), and the associated gov ernment enforced lockdown measures aimed at containment, economic activity, in the transportation sector, has dramatically reduced in many countries (Cohen and Kupferschmidt, 2020; Venter et al, 2020)
We estimate a total of 49,900 (11,000 to 90,000) excess deaths and 89,000 (64,700 to 107,000) pediatric asthma emergency room visits (ERVs) avoided across 34 countries with recorded COVID-19 mitigation measures (Fig. 1; Table S1)
Summary
Long-term exposure to air pollution including fine particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) are estimated to be associated with ~8.8 million excess deaths from acute respiratory infections and non-communicable diseases annually (Burnett et al, 2018; Chowdhury et al, 2020; Lelieveld et al, 2020), while exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) results in 4 million new pediatric asthma cases annually (Achakulwisut et al, 2019). The reductions in traffic and industry were associated with decreases in surface concentrations of air pollutants worldwide (Bao and Zhang, 2020; Dantas et al, 2020; Muhammad et al, 2020; Nakada and Urban, 2020; Venter et al, 2020). These changes offer an unprecedented op portunity to estimate the short-term effects of the enforced lockdown on global human health burden attributable to air pollution. In this short communication we use established exposure-response functions to es timate mortality and pediatric asthma emergency room visits (ERVs) that have potentially been avoided due to air pollution declines during lockdown
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