AI for in-line vehicle sequence controlling: development and evaluation of an adaptive machine learning artifact to predict sequence deviations in a mixed-model production line

Abstract

Customers in the manufacturing sector, especially in the automotive industry, have a high demand for individualized products at price levels comparable to traditional mass-production. The contrary objectives of providing a variety of products and operating at minimum costs have introduced a high degree of production planning and control mechanisms based on a stable order sequence for mixed-model assembly lines. A major threat to this development is sequence scrambling, triggered by both operational and product-related root causes. Despite the introduction of Just-in-time and fixed production times, the problem of sequence scrambling remains partially unresolved in the automotive industry. Negative downstream effects range from disruptions in the Just-in-sequence supply chain, to a discontinuation of the production process. A precise prediction of sequence deviations at an early stage allows the introduction of counteractions to stabilize the sequence before disorder emerges. While procedural causes are widely addressed in research, the work at hand requires a different perspective involving a product-related view. Built on unique data from a real-world global automotive manufacturer, a supervised classification model is trained and evaluated. This includes all the necessary steps to design, implement, and assess an AI-artifact, as well as data gathering, preprocessing, algorithm selection, and evaluation. To ensure long-term prediction stability, we include a continuous learning module to counter data drifts. We show that up to 50% of the major deviations can be predicted in advance. However, we do not consider any process-related information, such as machine conditions and shift plans, but solely focus on the exploitation of product features like body type, power train, color, and special equipment.