AI Effectiveness and Risk Assessment of Investments in High-Risk Start-Ups

Abstract

Which business idea or project would be successful? Is it worth investing in it and to what extent? What is the risk level and how can it be mitigated to achieve success? All these questions are relevant to both entrepreneurs and investors, especially when it comes to high-risk start-ups. The purpose of this paper is to present a methodology for intelligent effectiveness and risk assessment (IERA) of investments in high-risk start-ups, with a focus on space industries. Such an assessment is challenging for several reasons, including the lack of unified statistics on space industries, evaluation of benefits other than economic ones, long-term development challenges, etc. The developed IERA methodology integrates a combination of various known methods used in the space industries for both investment appraisal and risk assessment. The application of various AI-based tools for methodology criteria, weights, and scores contributes to obtaining realistic values and ensures the success of the analysis results, thereby benefiting the project itself. Thus, the applied IERA methodology can be implemented in real-time, based on a broad knowledge base, with high accuracy, and requiring significantly fewer financial resources. The main advantage of the developed methodology is the assurance it provides to both entrepreneurs and investors, offering them sufficient certainty and confidence.